What will happen after silver mini-bubble crashes?

This is just my hunch. I could be wrong, but I might as well take some guesses.

First of all, an important thing happened today. Gold appears to be entering a similar parabolic phase just like silver. The only things that haven’t joined the parties are the miners.

Let’s say that gold continues its parabolic trajectory, then I’m guessing that the following may happen:
1. Gold tops out at around $1680.
2. Silver tops out at around $56 to $59.
3. Miners (GDX) tops out at around $67.5.
The time-frame is probably within 2 weeks, until May 16th or so.

After silver mini-bubble crashes, my correction targets are
1. Silver may crash to $30, with $22 as my lower target.
2. Gold drops to $1250, with $1150 as my lower target.
3. Miners drop to $51.
Silver will enter its zig-zag Elliot wave 4 of bull market. The trading range will be from $30 to $60 for probably about 1.5 years or more to shake out both bulls & bears. In the meantime, I am guessing that miners will take lead the next phase in this PM bull market, with gold prices go to new high from about $1600 to $1850.

If the gold price doesn’t do a parabolic top, which seems to be more likely to me, then I’m guessing that the following may happen:
1. Gold tops out at $1600.
2. Silver tops out at $52 to $53.
3. Miners tops out just below $64.
The time-frame is possibly before next Tuesday or Wednesday.

After silver mini-bubble crashes, my correction targets are
1. Silver may go down to $30 to $34, with $25 as my lower target.
2. Gold drops to $1250 to $1300, with $1150 as my lower target.
3. Miners drop to $54, with $51 as my lower target.

Have fun poking the bubble! Don’t get the soapy water splashed onto your face.

Frugal at www.1stMillionAt33.com

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2 Responses to What will happen after silver mini-bubble crashes?

  1. Realitybytes says:

    Good call on the precious metal(PM) market being overheated. I am wondering why you are calling it a bubble though. The reasons from what I’ve read, as to why it isn’t are:
    1. China demand – Number of factors here, but the regular citizens will be putting a lot more money in gold from here on out. Real Estate and the market are not good investments for the Chinese for the near future, and given their nature to gamble. Plus the government, knowing that currency is being debased is exhorting them to do so.
    2. There is little or no institutional investment in PM, but it is starting to happen.
    3. Nothing that is giving PM it’s value currently is changing.
    4. PM is now participating in a global market as a currency, and winning.

    My second question to you is, now that there has been a slight cool off down to 1500USD per oz. Do we have a further leg up? Still a long term bull?
    My juniors are still performing like crap, despite the fact they are going to be profitable at 800$USD per oz, they have been dropping like lead gold bricks.

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  2. mikef says:

    With the recent silver drop, we have rapidly approached your 30-34. Do you think we will trade in this range still, or does the rate of drop push us into another paradigm?

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